最新帖子

最新回覆

打印

One of the most interesting

One of the most interesting

questions, then, which the Commissioners were called upon to decide was, whether, at least during the period of their labours, the anticipations of Mr. Jevons would be fulfilled or not. It is easy to compare his anticipations with those above quoted; or rather, it is easy to determine whether Mr. Jevons’s theory of an increasing increase, or the theory of a uniform average increase, accords best with the experience of the last five years. To make the comparison fairly we must adopt the figures on which his own estimate was founded. We have seen that he rejected the annual increase of 2,403,424 deduced from the records of the nine preceding years, and adopted instead an increase of 3? per cent. year by year, taking one year with another. His own calculations gave for this year 1871 a consumption of 118 millions of tons,—an enormous increase on the annual consumption when he wrote. According to the view he rejected, the consumption for the year 1871 is easily computed, though slightly different results will be obtained, according to the year we choose to count from.

The annual increase above mentioned gives an increase of 24,034,240 tons in ten years, and if we add this amount to the consumption in 1861 (83,635,214 tons) we obtain for the year 1871 a consumption of 107,669,454 tons. On the other82 hand, if we add eight years’ increase to the consumption of 1863 (88,292,515 tons), we obtain 107,519,907 tons.8 It will be seen that there is an important difference between the consumption for 1871, as estimated according to Mr. Jevons’s view, and according to the average rate of increase in the nine preceding years. As the matter stood in 1865, the great question concerning the consumption of the year 1871 would have been,—whether it would be nearer 118 millions, the estimate of Mr. Jevons; or to 107? millions, the estimate, according to the annual rate of increase; or, lastly, to a number of tons, not much, if at all, exceeding 100 millions?

The answer of the Commissioners comes in no doubtful terms. Judging from the consumption during the four years ending in 1870, the estimated consumption for the year 1872 is no less than 115 millions, an amount approaching Mr. Jevons’s estimate much more nearly than could be desired. Indeed, if we consider the imperfect nature of the statistics on which he founded his calculations, the agreement between his estimate and the observed result must be regarded as surprisingly close Two considerations must have caused Scheer the gravest possible anxiety..

Remembering the conclusion to which Mr. Jevons came with respect to the period for which our coal stores would last, and noticing the close agreement thus far between his anticipations and the result, we can well understand the warning tone of the report issued by the Commissioners.83 ‘Every hypothesis,’ they say, ‘must be speculative, but it is certain that if the present rate of increase in the consumption of coal be indefinitely continued, even in an approximate degree, the progress towards the exhaustion of our coal will be very rapid.’ Let it be remembered that the Commission was issued at the instance of those who took the more sanguine view, and that it included within its ranks such eminent authorities as Sir William Armstrong, Sir Robert Murchison, Professor Ramsay, Mr. John Hunt, and others of like experience in the subject under inquiry.

TOP

新宿王子大飯店

優惠價:HK$998

原價:1,050

東京新宿華盛頓酒店

優惠價:HK$768

原價:1,018

新宿新城市酒店

優惠價:HK$778

原價:972

HUNDRED STAY Tokyo Shinjuku

優惠價:HK$861

原價:1,013

重要聲明:本網站討論區內容是以即時上載留言的方式運作,Qoos.com 對所有留言的真實性、完整性及立場等,不負任何法律責任。一切留言之言論只代表留言者個人意見,並非本網站之立場,用戶不應信賴內容,應自行判斷內容之真實性。由於本討論區受到「即時上載留言」運作方式所規限,故不能完全監察所有留言,若讀者發現有留言出現問題,請聯絡我們。Qoos.com 有權刪除任何留言及拒絕任何人士上載留言,同時亦有不刪除留言的權利。切勿撰寫粗言穢語、誹謗、渲染色情暴力或人身攻擊的內容,敬請自律。